Florence, August 31, 2021 – Tuscany it won’t be caught unprepared as the communication system of the daily bulletins about infections, hospitalizations and deaths from Covid changes nationally in the coming weeks.
The turning point on the bulletin, the emergency thermometer that has now become a regular daily appointment for everyone, aims to convince the unvaccinated of the importance of vaccination and to dismantle the hoaxes and misleading information.
The content of the bulletin does not change, but is split: on the one hand, the details of the vaccinated, separately those of the non-vaccinated. Because we already have a double epidemic that affects the immunized population differently and with different outcomes and the one that hasn’t received the vaccine yet.
“Tuscany is already collecting data in parallel, every morning we know how many vaccinated and how many unvaccinated are infected and what their clinical condition is, so if we have to send them to Rome, we will have no problems,” explains Governor Eugenio Giani. The transition of all regions to this model already adopted and made public by Campania and Veneto will take place by September so that everyone will know and the government’s technical-scientific commission can also evaluate the evolution of the pandemic.
But it’s important it is indeed essential that the data is properly read and analyzed by expert personnel, in order not to fall into the ‘trap’ of the paradox effect. As the number of vaccinated populations increases, in absolute numbers the number of people admitted to hospital despite the double dose may be higher than that of the unvaccinated, which, however, refers to a much smaller proportion of the population.
For example concrete in the week between August 23 and 29 of the 4,183 new positives in Tuscany, 47 developed severe or critical symptoms: 19 had completed the cycle. The numbers read this way can be impressive, while knowing that the 19 cases represent 0.45% of the total number of cases detected has yet another effect.
“The pitfall of the paradoxical effect is a common mistake that is sometimes made even by health professionals when they are in the hospital for vaccinated people, which could also be 30, 40 or 50% of hospitalized individuals. They wonder why, whether the vaccine is really effective,” explains Professor Alessandro Bartoloni, Director of Infectious Diseases in Careggi.
“We have a large number of vaccinated people and a much smaller proportion of the unvaccinated population, so it will also be possible to have more hospitalized patients vaccinated without meaning the vaccine is ineffective, indeed we never hoped for a vaccine to be developed in such a few months could have greater efficacy than expected with very few side effects, “explains the professor of the University of Florence.” In order not to fall into error, it is necessary to calculate how many cases of Covid develop between vaccinated and divide by the vaccinated population and the same between unvaccinated: it may seem complicated but otherwise we have doped data,” concludes Bartoloni. Also in the week ending last Sunday, the 989 people registered positive for the virus, in 46% of cases showing few symptoms, 39% no symptoms, 8% had mild symptoms, while 2% had severe symptoms.
on the total of the positives recorded last week, 57.6% had received no dose, 18.3% one dose and 24% two.
“The effectiveness of the vaccine is given by calculating the number of people who get sick compared to the number of people vaccinated – explains the director of the Prevention Department of the ASL Toscana centro, Renzo Berti – If it stays around 5%, this means that the vaccine works because it guarantees the protection of the vast majority of the vaccinated.”
For now, the vaccine is working. And the data confirms this.
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