Tuesday 31 August 2021
RTL / ntv Trend barometer
Union is approaching the 20 percent mark
Less than four weeks to Election Day and the Union still can’t stop the downward trend. The effects of the first TV trial will not be fully shown in the Forsa analysis until next week. However, the current trend barometer suggests that the CDU and CSU urgently need to act if they want to appoint the next chancellor.
The SPD can distance itself further from the Union, if only in small steps. In the trend barometer of RTL and ntv, for which opinion research institute Forsa yesterday surveyed 2,508 voters from Tuesday to Monday, the social democrats remain unchanged at 23 percent. However, the CDU/CSU loses one percentage point and is only 21 percent. 14 days ago it was exactly the other way around.
The Greens follow in third place with an unchanged 18 percent. The FDP and links also continue to exist Level last week. Only the AfD is growing slightly.
In January 2021, the Union led Sunday demand by 36 percent. At the time, the SPD had 15 percent and the Greens 19 percent. And even in the first week of July, the reception for the Union in the RTL/ntv trend barometer was twice as high (30 percent) as for the SPD (15 percent).
If the Bundestag elections were now, the parties could expect the following result: SPD 23 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 20.5 percent), CDU/CSU 21 percent (32.9), Greens 18 percent (8.9), FDP 12 percent (10.7), AfD 11 percent (12.6), Left 6 percent (9.2). The other smaller parties together still achieve 9 percent (5.2). None of the other parties reached the 3 percent limit. The 9 percent is divided over a total of 48 parties.
The number of non-voters and undecided has fallen slightly and is now at 24 percent and thus very close to the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8 percent).
The Union or the SPD can supply chancellors, the Greens cannot
In the Bundestag (782 members), which is 73 more members than in 2017, the Union would be represented by only 183 members (63 less than in 2017) due to the overhanging and compensatory mandates, according to Forsa’s calculations. The SPD, on the other hand, would have 197 members. The Greens would be present in the Bundestag with 154, the FDP with 103, the AfD with 94 and the left with 51 MPs.
The Greens could therefore expect 87 more members than in the current Bundestag. The FDP would send 23 members and the SPD 44 more members to the Bundestag than in 2017. The other parties would have fewer MPs in the Bundestag than in 2017, while the AfD would have just as many MPs in the future Bundestag as in the current one.
According to the current poll and forecasts, 392 MPs are needed to form a new government. A majority capable of governing would currently have neither an alliance of the Union and the Greens (337 seats) nor a coalition of the Union and the SPD (380 seats). A coalition could rule
- Union, Greens and FDP (440 seats)
- SPD, Union and FDP (483 seats)
- SPD, Greens and FDP (454 seats)
- SPD, Greens and Left (402 seats)
Union was rarely able to catch up on Election Day
Can the Union still hope for a turnaround by election day on 26 September? A look into the past contradicts it. Differences between the final election results and the respective polls at the end of August show that in only one of the last six federal elections since 1998, namely 2013, the Union’s result was 1.5 percentage points higher than the August result. In the five other elections, the Union’s result was even below the value of the August polls.
In contrast, the SPD’s election results in 2005 (plus 3.2 points), 2009 (plus 1 point) and 2013 (plus 2.7 points) were above the value of the Forsa survey in August. For the Greens, the election results in 1998 (plus 0.9 points), 2002 (plus 1.6 points), 2005 (plus 1.1 points) and 2017 (plus 1.9 points) were also better than the poll values. from August.
Laschet does not come out of the personal low
In the chancellor preference, SPD candidate Olaf Scholz has lost one percentage point from the previous week and is now at 29 percent. However, that is still 18 points ahead of Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, who remains at 11 percent. The green candidate Annalena Baerbock is also stagnating and remains unchanged at 15 percent.
Laschet has room for improvement when it comes to the approval of his own electorate. If the chancellor were elected directly, 41 percent (plus 3 points from last week) of CDU/CSU supporters would elect him. Baerbock would score 62 percent of his own followers (plus 5 points). Scholz could count on an 82 percent (plus 2 points) agreement among SPD supporters.
The following figures indicate that despite slightly improved values, the Union has not set in motion a turnaround for Laschet: of the voters who voted for CDU or CSU in 2017, only 23 percent would currently vote for Laschet, unchanged, if the Chancellor were instead of the Bundestag would be directly elected. The SPD candidate does better in this group: Scholz would get 27 percent of the union voters from 2017 onwards.
Would Söder be the better candidate?
Forsa has been asking about a possible candidate Markus Söder for weeks. If the CSU boss were the union’s candidate for chancellor, 39 percent (plus 1 percentage point from the previous week) of those polled would vote for him and only 22 percent (plus 1 point) for Scholz. Baerbock would then remain unchanged at 14 percent.
When asked who can best deal with the problems in Germany, 16 percent still mention the Union. The Greens are mentioned by 9 percent of those polled (minus 2 percentage points). 10 percent (plus 1 point) believe this of the SPD, 11 percent mention another party. A shocking 54 percent of respondents say neither side can handle the issues. In January, by contrast, 41 percent of those polled stated that the Union “would do the best to tackle the problems in Germany”. At the time, only 45 percent said no party was capable of that.
Germany divided in fight against pandemic
45 percent are satisfied with the federal government’s crisis management in the fight against the pandemic. 55 percent are not satisfied. The supporters of the FDP (67 percent) and especially the AfD (87 percent) are still above average dissatisfied. In contrast, supporters of the CDU and CSU (63 percent) are particularly satisfied, followed by supporters of the Greens (56 percent).
The data on party and chancellor preferences were collected from 24 to 30 August 2021 on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL by market and opinion research institute Forsa. Database: 2508 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points.