CSK and DC are assured of qualification, although their final ranking has yet to be determined. There are two games left on Sunday and with three of the four teams tied on 10 points on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how things develop after these two games are finished.
Shankar Raghuraman TOI made the calculations to show the odds of each team qualifying after Saturday’s games, assuming the odds of winning or losing in any given match are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores net run rates as, with two to three games remaining for each team, current NRRs could change quite a bit.
With 9 matches to go in the group stage, almost every match becomes a make or break game – not just for those playing it, but for other teams in the league as well. For example, the loss of MI on Saturday helped several teams while reducing their own chances.
Here’s what the odds of making it to the playoffs on Sunday are so far:
1) CSK’s defeat on Saturday does not change the fact that it is certain that it will make it to the play-offs. The chances of finishing in the top two in terms of points remain as high as 97%.
2) Like CSK, DC was also sure to qualify even before Saturday’s games, but the win over MI means their chances of finishing in the top two in terms of points are now close to 94%.
3) KKR’s loss on Friday and MI’s loss on Saturday mean that the third-placed RCB will now almost certainly qualify, with a tie for third being the lowest they can finish. But there are 24 scenarios where they can get third place with more than one other team, meaning there’s less than a 5% chance they’ll depend on the net run rate to get past the group stage. They have just over a one in three chance of finishing in the top two in terms of points.
4) KKR remains in fourth place and the loss of MI means their chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points have risen to almost 44%. The best they can hope for is a tie for third place.
5) The loss of MI has also bolstered the hopes of PBKS, who now have a nearly 41% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. Like KKR, the best they can hope for is a tie for third place.
6) RR is currently sixth but, like KKR, has a 44% chance of finishing in the top four in points after Saturday’s impressive win against CSK. Another team that can share at best for third place.
7) MI has dropped to seventh on the table but has a 44% chance of finishing in the top four on points like KKR and RR.
8) Two from CSK, DC and RCB are sure to occupy the top two spots, while the others are out of the running for these spots. That leaves the other four teams in the running to battle it out with one of these three (CSK, DC, RCB) for the remaining two slots.
How do we arrive at these opportunities?
The process begins by listing every possible scenario that remains in terms of combination of individual match results. As of Sunday morning, with 9 games left to play, that means 512 (two possibilities for the first game, each with two for the next game and so on, making a total of 2 to the 9 or 512 power). Next, we’ll take a look at what each scenario means in terms of the final scoring for each team and what ranking they are in (ignoring NRR, which cannot be predicted in advance). The odds for each team are then calculated by dividing the number of scenarios in which it finishes in the top four by the total number of possible scenarios, 512 as of now, and multiplying by 100.
Teams with the same number of points may have different odds because of what matches they have left and also how matches involving other teams affect their final place.
What were the playoff opportunities at the end of October 1? Find out HERE.