Brett Winton, director of research at Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, predicted a $ 200 trillion innovation market by 2030 as artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, gene sequencing and blockchain technology create a “unique moment in technological economic history.”
Speaking last week at a Forbes / SHOOK regional conference in Boston, Winton spoke positively about these transformative innovations, set for a decade of exponential growth, and highlighted that this trend is already underway.
The innovation market had $ 7 trillion in market value at the end of 2019. Spurred on by the upheaval of Covid-19, that figure doubled to $ 14 trillion by the end of 2020, according to his calculations. Ark seeks to adapt its investments to the expected innovation growth and feels that many investors are not well positioned on that front.
“As a general principle, investors inadvertently short-term innovation to a degree they are unlikely to appreciate,” Winton says.
Recognizing that this nine-digit forecast is greater than the global stock market value, he attributed the large expansion to productivity gains. Winton cited robo taxis, which he sees as the biggest productivity advance in history, even more than the steam engine.
“Historians will look back on this decade and be surprised that all of these things happened at the same time,” Winton says. “What’s particularly interesting about these innovations to us is that they put together and reinforce each other.”
To substantiate these bullish views, Winton cited the last seven years of work done on Ark, and how many of their forecasts, which were seen as aggressive, ended up seeming conservative in hindsight. Ark and Wood were famously bullish on Tesla
Winton first met Wood 15 years ago when the couple worked at AllianceBernstein
On the Boston stage, he shared similarly high expectations for cryptocurrency, predicting that Bitcoin will have a total value of $ 20 trillion within the next decade. It currently has a total market value just under $ 750 million.
He adds that most other tokens are less predictable, and he believes there is reason to believe that Bitcoin will make up 50% of the cryptocurrency market, meaning that all other coins will have a total value of $ 20 trillion. He expects cryptocurrencies to replace a fair share of the gold market value as an inflation hedge, pointing to increased market access from allocators and companies starting to add digital assets to their balance sheets.
Winton sees blockchain miners as a bad investment, as this feature is set to become the brand, but paid tribute to the value of digital wallets such as Coinbase and Square, which will be integrated not only for buying and selling, but using digital assets.