Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers odds, selection and prediction

That Dallas Mavericks (9-7) meet Los Angeles Clippers (10-7) Tuesday at the Staples Center for a tip from 6 p.m. 22:30 ET. Below we look at Mavericks vs. Clippers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA selections, predictions and bets.

Dallas is nearing the end of its second two-game miniseries in a row and has lost three games in a row. The Mavs dropped back-to-back games at the Phoenix Suns last week and lost to the Clippers 97-91 Sunday. Dallas is 7-9 ATS and 5-10-1 O / U with the 21st ranked net rating.

The Clippers are 4-3 overall and 3-4 ATS over the last two weeks, with the most recent being the 97-91 victory over Dallas on Sunday. LA’s defense ranks second in efficiency, sixth in effective field goal shooting and first in FT / FGA rate. Clippers are 9-8 ATS and 7-10 O / U with the sixth best net rating.

LA beat Dallas in their first meeting of the season, and the Clippers won their best of seven Western Conference first round playoff series against the Mavs last year despite losing the first two games at home.

Mavericks at Clippers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports odds for a complete list. Lines last updated at 13:15 ET.

  • Money line: Mavericks +160 (bet $ 100 to win $ 160) | Clippers -200 (bet $ 200 to win $ 100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +4.5 (-105) | Mowers -4.5 (-120)
  • Over / Under (O / U): 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Mavericks at Clippers key injuries

Mavericks

  • PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) probable
  • PG Luka Doncic (ankle) doubtful

Mowers

  • PF Marcus Morris (knee) likely
  • PF Nicolas batum (health and safety protocols) out
  • SF Kawhi Leonard (knees) out

Mavericks at Clippers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Forecast

Clippers 104, Mavericks 97

Money line

PASS BY because I only “lean” against LA, which covers this game and does not like the Clippers (-200) enough to risk doubling my potential profit for a direct win. That said, the Clippers have been fantastic at home this season and the Mavs have struggled so far away.

For example, LA is 8-3 at home with the eighth best efficiency difference and the second best defensive efficiency (according to CleaningTheGlass.com). While Dallas is 3-6 on the road with the 21st ranked efficiency difference and a minus-4.7 spread difference.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to CLIPPERS -5.5 (-108) because they have one of the best defenses in the league and match very well against Dallas’ offense.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Mavs is attempting the eighth-highest amount of mid-range field goals and the ninth-highest amount of 3-pointers. But the Clippers are 10th in defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range jumpers and 12th in defensive 3-point percentage.

In addition, Dallas runs its offensive through the post at the third-highest frequency, but LA has the fifth-best defensive efficiency vs. post-up offensive.

On top of that, the Clippers get a defensive wing above average back in Morris, which is a body that LA can throw in front of Luka if he returns on Tuesday.

There may also be value in fading Mavs if Luka returns because Lukas’ on-off net efficiency rates in the 13th percentile to minus-14 points per. 100 properties (CleaningTheGlass.com). And Luka could be an even bigger anchor for Dallas’ net efficiency if he plays with less than 100% health.

Over under

BET that UNDER 209.5 (-108) for 1 unit because LA’s defense was going to make it hard for Dallas to execute offensively. In addition, the Mavericks do a good job of defending what the Clippers often do.

For example, LA plays the sixth-highest frequency of isolation crimes and comes out in the transition with the sixth-highest frequency.

But Dallas’ passing defense is seventh in efficiency, and the Mavs have the ninth best defensive efficiency vs. isolation offensive.

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