Apple has lost more than 20% this year, but Citi has six reasons to think the tech giant’s stock will rise in 2023. “We believe demand for Apple’s products and services is likely to remain resilient throughout FY23,” analyst Jim Suva said in a note Tuesday. “We do recognize that regulatory risks remain a major overhang on the stock, but we view these as headline risk rather that fundamental risk. Such headlines could provide a near-term stock pullback which we would view as a buying opportunity for Apple shares.” The popular tech stock, which outperformed the S & P 500 from 2019-2021, has been pressured by this year’s challenging macro environment. High inflation, recession fears, worries about production shortages during the holiday season have weighed on the stock. Suva said Apple isn’t the firm’s top stock pick, but it’s maintaining its buy rating and $175 price target on it for these six reasons: It’s optimistic about growth coming from India It doesn’t see annual iPhone revenues being negative after December Services revenues should grow as currency headwinds ease It expects a new product launch, an Apple AR/VR headset, in 2023 Negative impact from potential alternative app stores will be limited It expects the tech company to return more than $110 billion through buybacks and dividends Suva noted that India’s upper-mid and high-income middle class is expected to double, and their spending levels are expected to increase six-fold by 2030. The company also doesn’t have stores in India right now but is opening some in Mumbai and New Delhi in the first quarter. While services revenue has decelerated this year, Citi expects that any price increases that were implemented in the previous quarter will be a big driver of revenue as they take effect in the upcoming quarters. The note also highlighted regulatory risk, specifically recent reports that Europe may soon require Apple to allow alternative app stores on its iPhones and iPads. “Bears believe this would dramatically reduce app store revenues in Europe (~25% of total revenues) as customers will choose cheaper versions of the same app,” Suva said. “In our view, there are several factors that may limit the impact from these off-store billing options,” including consumer behavior, fees on off-store payments and restricting discount offers. Suva threw a “bonus option” too: the long-term possibility that it launches an Apple Car. Entering the auto market is a matter of “when” and not “if,” he said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
