Evercore ISI trimmed its S&P 500 outlook amid concerns of an economic slowdown that might lead to an earnings contraction as well as a recession. The Wall Street firm’s senior managing director Julian Emanuel cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 4,200 from 4,300. The lower forecast still represents a near 9% gain from Monday’s trading level around 3,860. “Combined with a stronger USD, labor market strain, supply chain issues, and inventory builds in a deglobalizing world, margins and EPS are under pressure as prospective Recession Scenarios develop,” Emanuel said in a note to clients. Emanuel is among the more bearish strategists with his 2022 outlook below the average target around 4,500, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey, which collects targets from 15 top strategists. The S&P 500 suffered its worst first half this year since 1970, tumbling into a bear market. The benchmark is now down more than 20% from its record high, reached in the first week of January. Volatility remains high as investors fear a recession, spurred by the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. Still, Emanuel believes there are short-term buying opportunities in the market despite his overall bearish outlook. The strategist recommends trading growth stocks tactically as the second-quarter earnings season begins. “While Value over Growth continues to be a cornerstone of our multi-year view, the range trading yield and moderating inflation backdrop as 2H22 starts makes it likely that further rally is led by tactical Growth outperformance as Earnings Season begins,” Emanuel said. – CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
