The Fed is oversteering on inflation–every signal suggests it’s already cooling

Coming into the year, there was little question that more restrictive monetary policy from the Fed was needed to cool an overheated economy and bring overwhelming demand closer in line with supply. But in talking with many business leaders, it seems clear that not only are leading economic indicators from industry sources across all the … Read more

Economist Larry Summers was right before on inflation—and has another contrarian call now

In attempts to get inflation under control, the latest interest rate increase by the US central bank is 0.75%—for the third consecutive time. But some experts, like Harvard economics professor Larry Summers, warn the Fed’s actions are too little and possibly too late. My Fortune colleague Shawn Tully’s new feature article recalls his day with … Read more

Consumer sentiment matters more than inflation and unemployment numbers–and it has never been so bad for so long

Much like the unemployment rate, inflation numbers can miss the mark on properly reflecting a country’s economic mood because these figures offer an incomplete picture of a country’s economic health. Consumer sentiment, on the other hand, reflects our attitudes about the current state of the economy and expectations about its trajectory. And by all accounts, … Read more

As cost-cutting kicks in, here are the benefits employers are protecting—and the ones they are axing

As companies increasingly turn to cost reductions as inflation and an uncertain economy persist, that includes trimming down certain employee benefits. For some insight, I had a conversation with Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., president and CEO of SHRM, the Society for Human Resource Management. In an economic downturn, historically, companies would cut their training and … Read more

Crypto bosses like me are having to let go of some of the most talented people in America. Here’s why you should jump on hiring crypto castaways

Crypto winter has arrived–and it’s chilly out there for the thousands of employees being laid off in response to the sector’s worst downturn in several years. I should know. My cryptocurrency company is one of the many that had to reduce staff earlier this year when the crypto market tumbled. Simply put, we were overstaffed … Read more

CEOs said a recession would return workers to the office—The opposite happened

Bosses predicted—or perhaps desperately hoped—that the threat of a recession would give them the upper hand in their battle with employees to return to the office after months of hybrid and remote work. They wagered that an economic slowdown—and the layoffs that often accompany it—would make workers more desperate to keep their jobs and thus … Read more

Stop calling them ‘job creators’

You can tell “job creator” is a loaded term because it’s only used in political debates. Yes, some business owners say it, not in boardrooms or internal memos, but rather when defending their role to the public. For years, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has invoked the concept against public scrutiny. Bernie Marcus, the founder of … Read more

VC funding is drying up. Here’s a four-time founder’s guide to surviving a market downturn

Over the past few months, the startup community has been hit particularly hard by economic uncertainty. Following unprecedented losses, SoftBank signaled that they would cut headcount and exit stakes in some of their most noteworthy investments. Leading venture capital firms like Sequoia Capital and Y Combinator have issued stark warnings to founders telling them to … Read more

Here come the Roarin’ 20s. Invest until it hurts

In many respects, recent history has been perfectly miserable. With every news cycle, the world seems to be getting darker and darker. The pandemic has made us worry about loved ones. The quarantines were brutally isolating. Then came the shortages. To top it all off, the financial markets went haywire in 2022, destroying more wealth … Read more