Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the geopolitics of the Middle East and North Africa region has been in turmoil.
Recently, Palestine applied to join the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) bloc along with seven Arab countries: Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Morocco. At the group’s Johannesburg summit in August, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt—along with Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina—were formally nominated. BRICS upcoming entries.
However, while Palestine was not invited to the summit and is not among those soon to join the group, the BRICS can help – and in some ways already is – to bring the issue of Palestinian statehood to the international center stage. This is a welcome development following the suspension of the peace process by the US and Israel, and Washington’s emphasis on normalizing peace agreements between Israel and the Arab states.
In fact, although the BRICS aid to Palestine is not new, the recent context is.
The Johannesburg summit concluded with a declaration calling for direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine based on international law and the Arab Peace Initiative, for a two-state solution, to establish a sovereign, independent and viable Palestinian State. The text echoed the Palestine-China Strategic Partnership signed in June. A few days before the summit, from South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa has highlighted his support for the liberation of Palestine.
The Palestinian leader has expressed support for BRICS’ call to start direct negotiations with Israel and without US involvement. The message to the US? The era of American unilateralism is coming to an end.
Expressing the revival of the issue through the Arab Peace Initiative and supporting the steps taken by BRICS, Saudi Arabia He appointed the first non-Palestinian ambassador and consul general in Jerusalem without consulting Israel.
For Israel’s part, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit China in the coming months to discuss a negotiation process with the Palestinians led in part by China and Russia. the palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas He visited China in June, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping, and reiterated China’s commitment to supporting Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu also visited China in May.
In fact, the BRICS countries are tacitly rejecting the US The Abrahamic Covenants– Encouraged position on Palestine. This does not mean that they do not support the agreements, but rather that they believe that the absence of a clear and sustainable position to resolve the Palestinian issue will end the possibility of a two-state solution.
Second, Palestine’s warmer ties with the BRICS come amid a growing internal crisis involving the very existence of the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinians’ decision to leave the US as a mediator shows that relations with Washington and Israel are deteriorating. It shows the Palestinian leader’s belief that Washington and Israel’s newly elected far-right government have decided to weaken or disband the PA and abandon the peace process in order to annex the occupied West Bank.
In recent years, the US has significantly reduced its aid to the AP. Israel continues to withhold tax revenues and impose other sanctions that have negatively affected the PA’s ability to spend its budget, delaying salary payments and cuts to civil servants and reduced public services. This has worsened public support for the PA growing disagreement with the status quo.
The lack of a political horizon together with the economic pressures and the crisis of internal legitimacy are increasing the internal tensions of the PA. Young Palestinian fighters are increasingly facing excessive settler violence and attacks on their communities in the occupied West Bank.
This has led to clashes between them and the PA, which under the Oslo Accords undertakes extensive security coordination with Israel, including the prevention of armed attacks. All this is forcing the PA to look for a negotiation tool in BRICS that will help it regain its lost domestic support.
Given the continued influence of Russia in Syria, and China’s central role in brokering a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Palestine also wants to take advantage of the growing rivalry between the great powers in its neighborhood to launch a new non-aligned peace process.
That’s easier said than done.
For now, BRICS support for Palestine remains largely rhetorical. The BRICS, collectively or as individual nations, have not increased any support for the PA. The group has not provided Israel with financial incentives to lure Israel into negotiations. There is no doubt that the BRICS nations will get involved militarily in the conflict.
The BRICS bloc is largely unwilling to address the root cause of the Palestinian crisis: Israel’s illegal occupation and policies that global human rights groups have described as apartheid. Against this background, it is natural to ask if the solidarity extended by BRICS to Palestine will remain symbolic and on paper.
Israel’s enormous military and economic power, along with the continued support of the United States, will not exert any serious pressure to engage in direct negotiations. Israel also has strong ties with BRICS members, especially China, India and Russia And there is no evidence that they will compromise those ties to push Israel into talks.
The Palestinian national discontinuity will also hamper the potential success of any negotiations even if it happens.
However, it is important to remember that the BRICS commitment to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in its infancy. Now, the bloc must be ready to deploy hard or soft power tools if it is to meaningfully emerge as a player capable of pushing Israel into direct negotiations. Without it, BRICS will not be able to prevent Israel from annexing the West Bank and abandoning the two-state vision.
And a test for the team could arrive before too long. Hama and Israel Both say they are preparing for a multi-front war that will change the balance of power in the region. In such a situation, BRICS could play a bigger and more significant role in ending the conflict.
The question is: does he really want to?
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
